As noted last month, San Rafael CA’s real estate market is increasingly fueled by foreclosures and short sales. The low end (under $600K) is just on fire with “fire sale” prices. We are currently experiencing an amazing 69% pending ratio for homes priced at or below $600K (up from 31% in February). San Rafael’s bread and butter homes, priced between $600K and $800K continue selling at a moderate pace with 29% of homes are in escrow. Increasing affordability, low interest rates on conforming loans, an increased presence of FHA loans, and a shifting mindset are all resulting in a strengthening market. Additionally, the $8K tax credit for first time home buyers is likely helping pull some buyers into the fray, despite the income limitations placed on this credit.
Overall, the number of homes on the market rose slightly with 179 homes (up from 174 last month and about 135 last year at this time). What is striking is the comparison between this month in 2006 and today. See below for more on this.
Twenty-six homes sold in April 2009 (up from 19 in March 2009). The average days on market was 118 days, the average sales price was $680,000, square footage was 1,791–roughly $383 per sq. ft. By contrast, in 2006 46 homes sold for an average price of $1.1 million (about $497/sq. ft.). Moreover, the homes sold in half the time (53 days). While the times have changed, the hottest neighborhoods have not: Lucas Valley, The Dominican, and Forbes remain very attractive to many buyers, as to Terra Linda, Trestle Glen, Los Ranchitos, and Glenwood. Finally, if you know anyone interested in a very well maintained Eichler with a wonderful patio, please let me know as I have clients considering a move if the right buyer comes along.
|
Price Range
|
Total Homes
|
Pending Listings
|
|
Up to $600K
|
48 (down 4)
|
69%
|
|
$600K – $800K
|
86 (up 21)
|
29%
|
|
$800K – $1 mil.
|
48 (up 7)
|
29%
|
|
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.
|
47 (up 4)
|
6%
|
|
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.
|
19 (down 2)
|
16%
|
|
$2 mil. & Up
|
11 (down 2)
|
9%
|
If you have any questions regarding the current real estate market in San Rafael (Marin County), California, please contact Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Morgan Lane Marin: (415) 350-9440.
San Rafael CA’s real estate market is increasingly fueled by foreclosures and short sales. We are currently experiencing 44% pending ratio for homes priced at or below $600K (up from 31% last month). Although San Rafael’s low end is not as strong as Novato’s, it is certainly gathering momentum. Importantly, San Rafael’s bread and butter homes, priced between $600K and $800K continue selling — 32% of these homes are in escrow (up 1% from February 2009). Increasing affordability, low interest rates on conforming loans, and a general shift in mindset are helping many buyers in the lower price ranges attain home ownership. Additionally, the $8K tax credit for first time home buyers should also help pull buyers into the fray as value priced properties come onto the market. It is a sign of the times: San Rafael currently has 10 listings under $400K and another 9 homes under $500,000 (this is a giant increase from 5 in January 2009). Overall, the number of homes on the market continues to rise with 175 homes (up from 153 last month and about 135 last year at this time).
Nineteen homes sold in March 2009. Seven of the homes that sold last month were priced below $605K. Moreover, not a single home in San Rafael CA sold for $1 million — strange… The average days on market was 118 days, the average sales price was $680,000, square footage was 1,791–roughly $383 per sq. ft. San Rafael’s strongest micro-climate markets in were Terra Linda, Lucas Valley, Dominican, Trestle Glen, and Peacock Gap. Finally, if you know anyone interested in a very well maintained Eichler with a wonderful patio, please let me know as I have clients considering a move if the right buyer comes along.
|
Price Range
|
Total Homes
|
Pending Listings
|
| Up to $600K |
54 (up 12) |
44% |
|
$600K – $800K
|
65 (up 4)
|
32%
|
|
$800K – $1 mil.
|
41 (up 6)
|
20%
|
|
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.
|
43 (up 10)
|
14%
|
|
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.
|
21 (up 10)
|
14%
|
|
$2 mil. & Up
|
13 (down 3)
|
0%
|
If you have any questions regarding the current real estate market in San Rafael, California, please contact Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Morgan Lane Marin: (415) 350-9440.
Although February was a short and rainy month, Marin County, CA., still experienced a good number of sales. So far in March 2009. we are seeing increasing inventory similar to “normal” years (I hesitate to call 2009 a “normal” year in light of the current economic situation). Recent gains in the stock market are a welcome change. Interest rates are down to about 5% on conforming loans right now, which is great (that is more than 1 full point lower than this time last year). So, it seems the pump is primed. We’ll see if the real estate market responds.
Obviously, the more stringent underwriting policies of lenders are stifling demand. Although word on the street is that at least one big lender has taken steps to loosen up underwriting practices. It is obvious to everybody who comes into contact with the Marin real estate market that home buyers are continuing to wait for the perceived bottom. This, despite the FACT that interest rates are as low as could be realistically expected and prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods have receded to 2003 or 2004 price levels.
[Click here for the rest of the report, courtesy of NorthBayRE.com.]
While sluggishness has trickled-up into the luxury real estate market in Marin, CA., there is legitimate cause for optimism in coming months. For example, there were 161 new escrows opened in Marin County in February 2009. While the majority of these (68%) were value plays in Novato and San Rafael, it was the highest level seen since August 2008 and was 19% higher than February 2008–encouraging news since we had just 19 “working days” last month. Moreover, the first 2 weeks of March 2009, resulted in 116 opened escrows. In March 2008, we saw just 98 homes go into escrow. That is an increase of 18% over last year. Again, encouraging. For a detailed accounting of national trends, click here for the March 2009 Market Report from Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, e-mail me.
It is clear to me that with minimal social proof, buyers will return to the market and pent-up demand will create a surge in sales figures. The $8,000 no-strings-attached credit from the government (for first time home buyers, loosely defined as someone who has not owned a home for the past 3 years and meets income limitations), the increased conforming loan limit (set to go back up to $729,750 some time in April 2009), and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board is a recipe for sales. I should also note that with the increased conforming loan amount, buyers with 25% down (and who otherwise qualify) will be able to obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of a little over $1.6 million.
[Click here for the rest of the article, courtesy of ImagineMarin.com].
Following Novato’s lead, San Rafael’s real estate market is gathering momentum at the low end as foreclosures and short sales drive the market. We are currently experiencing 31% pending ratio for homes priced at or below $600K. Although not as strong a market segment as Novato, I would still characterize it as competitive price band.
Importantly, San Rafael’s bread and butter homes, priced between $600K and $800K continue selling at a rapid clip — 31% of these homes are in escrow (up 2% from January 2009). Low interest rates on conforming loans are helping many buyers in the lower price ranges attain home ownership. Meanwhile, rates for conforming jumbo loans are a bit higher and apparently not being embraced by buyers as the San Rafael housing market is flat above $1 million (see lower chart). But, the $8K tax credit for first time home buyers should also help pull buyers into the fray as value priced properties come onto the market. Amazingly, we have 15 homes currently being marketed under $500,000 (there were just 5 last month), and another 16 under $600,000. Overall, the number of homes on the market remains relatively low, with 153 homes (up from 142 last month).
As many inquiries come in regarding the distressed market, the chart below illustrates the number of, and percentage of, distressed sales so far in 2009.
|
SFH Sales – January 1 – March 6, 2009
|
| |
|
Total
|
|
Distressed
|
|
% of Total
|
|
Marin County
|
|
142
|
|
46
|
|
32%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
San Rafael & Novato
|
|
73
|
|
34
|
|
47%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All Other Cities
|
|
69
|
|
12
|
|
17%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: BAREIS March 8,2009
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roughly 50% of the sales in Marin County this year were in San Rafael and Novato. Of these San Rafael and Novato sales, nearly 50% were distressed sales. In all other cities the distressed component of the market is roughly 17%.
Despite the relatively high ratio of pendings in San Rafael, only 12 homes sold in February 2009 (granted, that is a short month), which is 33% lower than January 2009. The average days on market was 148 days, sales price was $673,000, square footage was 1,846–roughly $394 per sq. ft. San Rafael’s strongest micro-climate markets in were Terra Linda, Lucas Valley, and Peacock Gap. Finally, if you know anyone interested in an Atrium Eichler on a quiet cul-de-sac, please let me know as 25 Calafia Court in Terra Linda is currently active.
|
Price Range
|
Total Homes
|
Pending Listings
|
| Up to $600K |
42 (up 2) |
40% |
|
$600K – $800K
|
61 (up 9)
|
29%
|
|
$800K – $1 mil.
|
35 (no change)
|
11%
|
|
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.
|
33 (up 6)
|
0%
|
|
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.
|
11 (down 1)
|
10%
|
|
$2 mil. & Up
|
16 (up 3)
|
0%
|
If you have any questions regarding the current real estate market in San Rafael, CA, please contact Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate: (415) 350-9440.
Over the past few months, notable slowing of the luxury real estate market was apparent nationwide, in the San Francisco Bay Area, and in Marin County. This past month a slight up-tick has emerged in the Marin market as the number of homes in escrow has increased and buyer enthusiasm is improved. Open houses have been busy. Offers are being written. And agents who work the luxury market are noting a more focused approach by buyers. Meanwhile, the national numbers are generally flat or declining. For a detailed accounting of national trends, click here for the February 2009 Market Report from Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a similar report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, e-mail me and I will send you a pdf of the report(s)–it is my pleasure to be of service.
The graph below reflects a 90-day rolling average of asking prices for homes in the topmost quartile (e.g. prices of the most expensive homes) in 3 touchstone Marin County cities: Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield. As you can see, over the past year, prices have declined in each.
Note however, that a few homes in Kentfield marketed early last year were priced at the extreme high end, resulting in an exaggerated shift.
$2 Million to $4 Million Luxury Homes
There are 102 homes on the market between $2 million and $4 million (as predicted this is way up from last month’s 69). Sellers are anxious to get their homes on the market early this year in hopes of getting jump on the market. We’ll see if this pays off. Certainly the number of sales fell off the cliff following the Septemer meltdown — there were 18 sales in October 2008 (these buyers were well into their escrow periods at the time of the meltdown) and just 5 in January 2009 (up one from December 2008).
[Click here for the rest of the report, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]
As of this writing, the Stimulus Bill and its apparently watered down home buyer tax credit is being finalized. Yet economists and consumers are grim. Ergo, the Marin County, California real estate market continues its slow and steady march into the teeth of a tireless media storm of negativity. Yes, the market overall is fairly slow, but not as slow as it may appear. Sales in Northern Marin’s Novato were up 30% January 2009 over January 2008–as I like to say, “Give Yourself a Raise–Move to Novato!”
The chart below shows a 90-day rolling average of Mill Valley’s new listings and absorbed listings (e.g., sales), comparing current numbers with those of last year. Note that the while the numbers for new listings are about the same, the number of absorbed listings is up in 2009 over 2008. Again, while the wheels of the real estate market are sticking and squeaking, they have not fallen off (although sellers are advised to wear seat belts). If you would like a similar chart for any other town or city in Marin or San Francisco, please let me know.
Obviously, the more stringent underwriting policies of lenders are stifling demand. In addition, I am quite aware that some home buyers are continuing to wait for the perceived bottom, despite the FACT that interest rates are as low as could be realistically expected and prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods have receded to 2003 or 2004 price levels. As evidenced by frenzied investor activity, particularly in Novato, there is definite traction at the low end. And once prices stabilize at the low end, the rippling effect upwards will follow.
[click here for the rest of this article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com].
Following Novato’s lead, San Rafael’s real estate market is gathering momentum at the low end as foreclosures and short sales drive the market. With 40% of the homes for sale under $600K currently in escrow, we are looking at a pretty strong seller’s market in this competitive price range. Homes priced between $600K and $800K are also selling at a rapid clip — 29% of these homes are in escrow. While interest rates on conforming loans are super-low (again down to 4.75% as of today), the rates for conforming jumbo loans are a bit higher and apparently not being embraced by buyers as the San Rafael housing market is flat above $1 million (see below chart). At this time it is unclear what new benefits, if any, home buyers may reap from the new Stimulus Bill (click here for my recent article on this topic ). There are currently 5 houses on the market under $500,000, and another 19 under $600,000. Overall, the number of homes on the market remains low, with 142 homes (up from 114 last month).
18 single family homes sold in January 2009 (same as January 2009), the average days on market was 105 days. These homes averaged about 1,864 square feet and sold for an average price of about $662,000–roughly $366 per sq. ft. San Rafael’s strongest micro-climate markets in were Terra Linda, Peacock Gap, and Lucas Valley. Finally, if you know anyone interested in an Atrium Eichler on a quiet cul-de-sac, please let me know as 25 Calafia Court in Terra Linda is currently active.
|
Price Range
|
Total Homes
|
Pending Listings
|
| Up to $600K |
40 (up 1) |
40% |
|
$600K – $800K
|
55 (down 24)
|
29%
|
|
$800K – $1 mil.
|
35 (up 10)
|
11%
|
|
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.
|
27 (up 6)
|
7%
|
|
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.
|
11 (up 2)
|
9%
|
|
$2 mil. & Up
|
13 (up 3)
|
0%
|
If you have any questions regarding the current real estate market in San Rafael, California, please contact Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Frank Howard Allen Realtors Marin: (415) 350-9440.
While many bankers, lawyers, and executives received annual bonuses this year, many others did not. It can be expected that the resulting impact on the luxury market will be felt. Last month I noted a sluggish high end for Marin County real estate and nothing much has changed. In fact, sales and escrows slowed further. National number reflect a similar trend. Click here to view the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing’s Housing Report dated 1/4/09. If you would like a similar report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, e-mail me and I will send you a pdf of the report.
[Click HERE for the rest of the report, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]
Below is a chart breaking down current inventory and pending sales.
|
Marin Cities & Towns
|
$2 Million — $4 Million
|
$4 Million & Up
|
|
Active
|
Pending
|
Active
|
Pending
|
|
Sausalito
|
4
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Belvedere
|
6
|
3
|
6
|
0
|
|
Tiburon
|
23
|
2
|
13
|
0
|
|
Mill Valley
|
6
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
|
Larkspur
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
|
Corte Madera
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Kentfield
|
9
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
|
Greenbrae
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Ross
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
0
|
|
San Anselmo
|
9
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
San Rafael
|
6
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
|
Novato
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Call Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Broker Associate, Frank Howard Allen Realtors of Marin, at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information. You can also e-mail Kyle at mailto:Kyle@ImagineMarin.com.
Marin County, California real estate has slowed. While largely a function of the season (Winter is generally slow), macro-economic considerations, and more stringent borrowing guidelines, I feel that the primary source of the current slowdown relates to a perception by home buyers that “now” is not a good time to buy. Nonetheless, interest rates are at ALL-TIME LOWS (the San Francisco Chronicle’s Real Estate section has noted these records lows each of the past four weeks), prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods are well off their peaks, and there is a wide variety of home choices out there. As evidenced by the investor actvity of the past few months, “now” does have some momentum.
Inventory is down to 503 single family homes for sale (we had about 716 last month) in the Highway 101 corridor (this number excludes Western Marin inventory).
[Click HERE for the rest of this market report, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]
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